Research / Area of inquiry

Orbit analysis, uncertainty & fragmentation

What can early observations tell us after an object breaks apart?

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Conceptual illustration / not research data · Earth imagery: NASA/NOAA
The scientific focus

From question to method.

The linked articles and proceedings investigate early-stage fragmentation characterization and reconstruction from orbital observations, including the limits imposed by sparse measurements.

Methods and themes

  • Fragment association and event reconstruction
  • Orbit and epoch estimation under uncertainty
  • Follow-up observation planning

Illustrative fragment paths are conceptual. The website does not expose internal project data or imply that one diagram represents an actual event.

Related projects

Work in context.

BIRALES TOP 5

Modules for sensor assessment, tasking, and analysis of orbital fragmentation observations.

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On-orbit break-up forensics

A collaborative research project on characterizing and reconstructing orbital fragmentation events.

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Early-stage fragmentation characterization

Methods to associate early observations with an on-orbit break-up and estimate event properties.

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Published record

Source material.

2025 · 11th European Conference for Aeronautics and Aerospace Sciences (EUCASS)

Space break-up forensics: unravelling the secrets of explosions and collisions in Space

Publication record
2025 · 9th European Conference on Space Debris · ESA Proceedings Database

Characterisation of fragmentation clouds and fragmentation event reconstruction for space break-up forensics

Publication record
2024 · 75th International Astronautical Congress

Early stage characterization of on-orbit fragmentation events

Publication record